Spring Wheat Note: Part 1 (June 2026)
Early seeding worries are over as Prairie growers wrap up wheat planting, triggering a mix of new-crop farmer hedging & spec fund liquidation that bled $1.00/bu off the board. However, with old-crop supplies seasonally tight & the Loonie sitting flat at long-term support, farmers have an excellent basis opportunity to step in and secure local cash pricing today.
Seeding Progress: Late start to spring wheat seeding in Western Canada, though rapidly catching up toward normal pace by week 23.
Moisture Conditions: What a difference a year makes. The drought-stricken dirt we saw in June 2025 has been replaced by a total soaking this spring, with the heart of the grain belt catching 155- 200% of normal rainfall over the last month. With seeding mostly wrapped up, the next six days look wet too, which is exactly what we want to lock in deep subsoil moisture and get this new crop out of the ground with a strong start.
The Loonie: At 0.7164, CADUSD is testing long-term channel support floors. Farmers -->who haven't yet rewarded the basis improvement should be considering it now, as the currency is more likely to bounce from here, turning this premium basis window into a ceiling.
Wheat FOB Matrix: CWRS 13.5% FOB VC should be competitive at $265/MT in the nearby and more so for new crop (US PNW HRS is priced out); CPSR remains structurally overpriced vs. mid-pro bunch (for now).
MGX Dec Futures:
Sharp selloff shedding over $1.00/bu (falling from ~$7.70 to $6.66) driven by heavy new-crop producer hedging, with spec longs unwinding into the move as well (double whammy). Nothing to see here folks.
CGC Stocks: Primary elevator inventories drawn down aggressively to ~680 KMT— old-crop is on-farm, not in the system. CGC Exports: Wheat YTD exports running +3.1% above last year at 19,002 KT, the standout performer across Canadian grain exports.
Funds are trimming net long positions in wheat as seeding progress advances and weather turns constructive — the speculative tailwind that drove the May rally is fading, and the path of least resistance for futures is lower until a weather scare changes the narrative.
